::: ANALYSES 2014 :::

January 2014: Annual musings

The turn of the year is always the time our annual performance is set out in stone, for all to see and compare. That number will remain on all our statements for the next ten years, testament to our success or failure to achieve absolute performance or at least a relative one. This year will fail remarkably, with negative readings on both counts.
Caution and capital preservation have not been a profitable investment strategy in 2011 and 2012, but 2013 will stand out as an outlier in the realm of asset management: quantitative easing and zero interest rates have rendered capital preservation in the short and long run mutually exclusive. Only the brave can sell these risk markets and bunker down as most informed and rational investors have since long being taken out.(more)

July 2014: From conspiracy theories...

After spending 3 years to this day in defensive posture following the 2009 rebound, and having failed to achieve any meaningful performance in our portfolios, it is time for a strategic re-assessment of our defensiveness.

Five full years into this crisis, and without an end in sight, the first conclusion is that our quite pessimistic economic assessments of year pasts have been somewhat off the mark; with the benefit of hindsight, reality has been significantly worse than our most pessimistic expectations for the economy, with nearly all metrics failing to regain pre-crisis levels notwithstanding truly astonishing reflationary policies worldwide. (more)

November 2014: Geopolitics in the driving seat

Within just few days, investors who have been seeking a speculative monetary alternative (Bitcoins) or the traditional sanctuary of real money (gold) were crushed by a sudden spike of downward volatility. Speculation and safety have both been challenging for portfolio managers, in a sign of times to come, while traditional securities markets continue to show a deep disconnect from reality and fundamentals. (more)